Races I'll be watching and why

In the past I've actually stayed up all night watching election returns, sometimes even taking the next day off to fully digest the returns. Two of the elections of my youth were of particular interest:

• The 1960 presidential election. I was 11. Kennedy won by just 113,000 votes. Nixon won California, Kennedy Texas, and most of the South
  
• The 1968 presidential election. With Nixon's winning California he clinched it. While I was 19, I was not able to vote as this was before the 26th Amendment.
  

I won't be staying up all night this year (I'll be traveling to Charlotte on business that week), but these are the races I'll be following and why they interest me.

• The Minnesota races in which I've already voted. Predictions: Mark Dayton (DFL) for Governor, Erik Paulsen (R) for Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, Terri E. Bonoff (DFL) for Minnesota Senate District 43, and Sarah Anderson (R) Minnesota State Representative - 43A
  
• The other Minnesota congressional races interest me as well. Three in particular: Minnesota 8th (Prediction James Oberstar (DFL) but I sense that Chip Cravaack is closing); Minnesota 6th (Prediction Michele Bachmann (R). Interesting because of the big money in the race!
  
• The Owatonna school district proposal to purchase Pillsbury is also of interest. There is scant polling to indicate how this may go but I predict it will fail because of general anti-tax sentiment. "Businesses are generally supportive of the Owatonna school district’s plan to purchase the former Pillsbury Baptist College campus in the heart of Owatonna. When the Owatonna Area Chamber of Commerce and Tourism recently asked its members how they feel about the school district’s proposed acquisition of the Pillsbury College Campus, 41 percent said they favor the acquisition. In addition, 30 percent of respondents said they were still undecided about the proposal and 24 percent opposed."
  
• Gubernatorial races of interest with predictions:
  
  • California: Prediction: Jerry Brown (D). I'm pulling for Meg Whitman but don't see it going that way. Brown will win and California will continue to remain ungovernable (see the Race to Save California)!
    
  • Pennsylvania: Prediction: Tom Corbett (R)
    
  • Wisconsin: Prediction: Scott Walker (R)
    
  • Texas: Of interest: Polls indicate and anti-incumbent sentiment. Prediction: Rick Perry (R)
    
  • Florida: Of interest because of the ways the polls have fluctuated. Prediction: None but hoping for Rick Scott R.
    
• Senate races with predictions. (Comment: All are important and of interest but I highlight a handful)
  
• Nevada: Prediction: Reid defeated! Yeah!!! (Republican pickup)
  
• Illinois: Prediction: Kirk (Republican pickup)
  
• Kentucky: Prediction: Rand Paul (R)
  
• Florida: Prediction: Marco Rubio (R). Interesting because looks like Crist is not a factor.
• Wisconin: Prediction: Feingold defeated (Republican pickup)
  
• Alaska: Prediction: Joe Miller (R). Interesting because of the Murkowski write-in campaign. I don't think results will be known for several days or more! If Murkowski and Miller split, Scott McAdams could win and it would be a Democrat pickup.
  
• Pennsylvania: Prediction: very close. Polls are closing. I'm hoping for a Republican pickup here
  
• California: Prediction: Carly Fiorina won't win but a Boxer defeat would be huge!
  
• West Virginia: Prediction: Unclear but the polls are very close. A Republican win would be a pickup.
  
• Arkansas: Prediction: Republican pickup
  
• Senate balance after elections: 52 Democrats / 48 Republicans. Pickups in California, Washington state, and West Virginia would be huge and tip the balance for the Republicans.
  
• House of Representatives:
  
  • Ohio will be very interesting to watch (also for the Senate race and Gubernatorial). See Two More Ohio Races to Watch and 2010 Congressional races: "a strategy of triage"
    
  • The Democrat Blue Dogs who vote for Obamacare are all at risk. See my earlier blog post about these races.
    
  • The Republicans winning the house and Nancy Pelosi being out as Speaker (2nd in presidential line of succession) would be huge and welcome news!
    
  • Balance after elections: Perhaps 225-210 to as high as 230 to 205.
    

Way out on the line for 2012:

• I think that the Republican ticket could be Mitt Romney (for President) paired with Tim Pawlenty. Evangelicals are skeptical of Mitt because of his Mormon faith. Pawlenty has strong Evangelical credentials and could balance "the faith" of the ticket and placate the social conservatives (who are largely Evangelical Christians). Both Romney and Pawlenty are well-qualified to have the highest office!
  
• I personally think that Sarah Palin would be a disasterous pick for the Presidential ticket!
  
• I think that it is probable that President Obama will be a one-term President.
  
  
  

Image Source: flickr