Something I am really good at

When Buying a New Car, the More You Know, the Less You Pay

 Excerpt:

New car shoppers who look up a car’s invoice price, shop multiple dealerships and aren’t afraid to haggle can save as much as $800 on average on a vehicle purchase, according to a study that is one of the first to test economic bargaining theory against real world data from the $340 billion U.S. auto business.

Just coming to a dealership armed with the invoice price of a vehicle can save a shopper as much as $140, according to an analysis of data from 1,402 shoppers who purchased one of eight car models in California between April and May 2002. The analysis is the foundation of a paper by F. Scott Morton of Yale University, Jorge Silva-Risso of the University of California Riverside and Florian Zettelmeyer of Northwestern University.

... Shopping around, visiting at least one additional dealership to get a competing quote, can save more, the study found.

Comment: The first new car I "bought" was for a widow who needed a new car. She wanted a Pontiac. I was a senior in college. I shopped and shopped the details (it was much harder back before the Internet) and called and called. I used my deepest voice to sound as adult as I could sound (I was 21). Basically I negotiated the deal over the phone and went to the dealership with her. This was back when I lived in Cincinnati. The best deal was in Northern Kentucky .... I think in Covington. It was a 1971 Pontiac Ventura. New cars are easier to buy than used because there are less variables and there is more information available. The keys (just off the top of my head):

• Separate all of the elements: Financing from trade in from add ons, etc.. Arrange financing in advance. The dealer may be able to beat it but by separating it out it makes negotiation easier
• Either don't trade in a car (sell it yourself) or know the value of it.
• Don't buy any dealer add-ons: undercoating was a big deal years ago and a waste of money. Don't by the extended warrenty
• Back then I used the phone. Today check the internet. Know what cars are available. Be willing to drive to another state to buy a car. Our last car was purchased in Wisconsin
• Be willing to buy a different brand. There's little difference between a Ford and a Chevy
• Be flexible of colors
• Know that the salesman is powerless to make a deal. It's the guy above him
• Be willing to walk away.

CNN's delegate count

CNN's delegate count

Delegate Math

How math virtually guarantees Romney's nomination

 Excerpt:

The Associated Press' estimate puts Romney currently at 415 delegates, to Santorum's 176, with Gingrich and Paul controlling 105 and 47, respectively. A candidate needs a majority of all delegates in order to win the nomination, which this year comes to 1,144.

Two of the remaining winner-take-all states will be uncontested, Utah and Pennsylvania. Romney is all but guaranteed to win Utah's 40 delegates on June 26, and so if Santorum win his home state's 72 delegates on April 24, his net gain is 32 -- leaving him about 200 behind Romney, with about 1430 remaining. The remaining states are scattered geographically and demographically, distributed evenly between Romney's base (the Northeast), Santorum's (the heartland), as well as the Romney-leaning West and the Gingrich-Santorum South.

If Romney were to stumble and win only a third of the delegates in the remaining states, Santorum would have to win more than half of all the delegates in order to pull ahead, meaning that Gingrich and Paul together would have to be held below 16 percent. To date, not even counting Romney's blowout in Massachusetts, Romney has won nearly half of the delegates while Santorum has won about one-fourth. That means the only path to Romney losing is Santorum doubling his past haul, while Romney dropping by about 70 percent. That's not likely.

Comment: Image from Romney campaign email. Remember delegate math is imprecise. On why Gingrich continues (basically his campaign is paying him):

Gingrich, meanwhile, directly benefits from continuing to run. His campaign has paid him, personally, more than $100,000 in "unspecified expenses in what amounted to petty cash," as the Washington Times' Luke Roziak puts it. The Gingrich campaign has also paid or otherwise subsidized Gingrich's for-profit enterprises, in the process raising his profile and, presumably, his speaking fees. Gingrich's top aides are rewarding themselves with plenty of Sheldon Adelson money, too -- one super-PAC aide paid herself $220,000 for about 10 weeks of work.

Electronic pull-tabs: Revenue Reality Check

Can electronic pull-tabs pull in enough stadium revenue?

Excerpt:

A major pillar of the Vikings stadium proposal unveiled last week is tax revenue from an expansion in charitable gambling. But such a financing plan has lots of unknowns — and one key question: Will the introduction of electronic gambling gizmos generate enough income to repay the bonds?

The financing proposal depends on electronic pull-tabs supplying funds to repay $398 million in bonds the state plans to float to build the facility. (Minneapolis will back another $150 million in bonds with sales taxes, pending City Council endorsement to the financial arrangement.

The entire public financing plan, Gov. Mark Dayton said last week, wouldn't use "a single dollar of general fund tax revenues.")

Minnesota already allows paper pull-tabs. To win cash prizes, players match pictures on the front of the cards they purchase, usually for $2 each, under tabs that they tear off. Bars and restaurants sell them on behalf of nonprofits, and the proceeds -- minus the prize money, expenses and taxes -- go to charity. Among those who benefit in Minnesota: American Legion posts, VFW groups and others who use the money to support local sports leagues, scholarships and the like.

Comment: I'm not particularly naive but until pull tabs were recently explained to me, I didn't even know what they were. Sounds like a giant waste of time and money! The linked article examines the dubious propects of the electronic pull tab revenue source. A must read because if this stream fails, all Minnesotans will be holdlng the bag for the Vikings stadium

The MSM and Repubican "Bloodletting"

Romney Scores Big Win; Press Fails to Notice

Excerpts:

Romney is being widely panned by the press for an “inability to close the deal,” and yet the description seems far more apt for Santorum, who now has blown huge leads in the most critical contests of recent weeks, Ohio and Michigan. If anything, the more voters look at Santorum, the more concerned they become and less likely they are to sign on the dotted line.

...

All reporting is now sports reporting. Reporters love a battle and they love to go on TV and rave about how exciting everything is. And editors seek a bracing and never-ending storyline because it draws readers and ultimately pleases their corporate bosses, who want to sell papers and generate pageviews.

 The headline “Romney Scores Six Wins and Continues Methodical Drive Toward Nomination” is just not going to drive eyeballs to your story.

 And reporters also tend to be moderate to liberal. Bloodletting among Republicans at some level is agreeable to many of them. I have to believe that if this was Obama instead of Romney, the stories would be about the growing inevitability of Obama’s nomination.

That Romney is in all likelihood on the march toward nomination will probably soon become too apparent for any serious journalist to deny. At that point, for the reasons listed above, we will begin to hear feverish talk about the prospects for a third party candidacy.

Comments: Source of images: 1. bloodletting; 2. Screen capture.

Hot air

Click for larger image.

Can't decide which stock to buy? Buy 'em all!

Pick an index: Wilshire 5000 is easier to track

 Excerpts:

The DJ Wilshire 5000 and MSCI U.S. Broad Market index both try to measure the entire stock market. Unlike the Standard & Poor's 500, which tracks 500 of the stock market's most valuable companies, the DJ Wilshire 5000 and MSCI U.S. Broad Market indexes try to own the big, the small and everything in between.

... It's also easy to track the DJ Wilshire 5000 because investors can buy shares in an ETF that tracks it, the SPDR DJ Wilshire Total Market ETF (TMW). You can track the index by entering TMW into any stock quote service.

Comment: Chart above (from Yahoo finance) shows it beating the DOW over 2 years.

Broad diversification. Chart below. Source

Arrived the same day as my tax refund

Comment: Murphy's law!

LEGO ISS

  Article

Mexico: Better places to travel

Dying to Go to Acapulco—Literally

Excerpts:

... the State Department does urge Americans to avoid nonessential travel to Ciudad Juárez, where more than 3,100 people got killed in 2010. (On a positive note, the number did plummet to a paltry 1,933 in 2011.) Government officials also advise steering clear (if possible) of Coahuila, Durango, San Luis Potosí and most of Sinaloa, and to confine excursions in Mazatlán to well-traveled tourist areas like the Zona Dorada. Elsewhere, travelers to the cities of Acapulco, Ixtapa and Zihuatanejo are advised to exercise caution, stick to the principal tourist areas and avoid driving after sundown on some main highways. But other than that, the cheerleaders proclaim, Mexico seems to be A-OK.

OK, call me a fussbudget, an old stick-in-the-mud, but when I go on vacation I like to visit countries where the exchange rate is good, the food is reasonably priced and my chances of being brutally murdered are fairly minimal. France and England fit the bill nicely, not only because of the low homicide rates but because of all the cathedrals and museums. I also enjoy the Netherlands and Australia, where machete massacres are a rarity.

But not everybody can afford to go abroad. So, if money is an issue, Canada is another viable option. It's close at hand, the people are incredibly friendly, and it's been years since 3,100 people got killed in a single year in any of its major cities. Sure, Calgary can get a little rough after sundown, but nothing like Ciudad Juárez.

Comment: We used to love going to Mexico. A friend has 3 time share weeks there.

IRS: New date (2/29)

The "Bennett Effect" and why College Education costs have tripled

Why College Aid Makes College More Expensive Excerpt:

Recipients of federal Pell Grants have, by definition, limited means to pay for college, so they are likely to qualify for grants and price breaks given out by schools, too. But schools view a student's sources of federal aid before deciding how much to give on their own, rather than the other way around. The result is a crowding out effect, where some schools give less as the government gives more.

Lesley Turner, a PhD candidate at Columbia University, looked at data on aid from 1996 to 2008 and calculated that, on average, schools increased Pell Grant recipients' prices by $17 in response to every $100 of Pell Grant aid. More selective nonprofit schools' response was largest and these schools raised prices by $66 for every $100 of Pell Grant aid.

Aid from schools over the past decade has increased about half as fast as federal aid, according to the College Board.

Perhaps worse for students than a crowding out effect is the Bennett Effect, named for William Bennett, who 25 years ago as Secretary of Education wrote for the New York Times, "Increases in financial aid in recent years have enabled colleges and universities blithely to raise their tuitions."

If subsidies puff up buying power and shift prices higher, as economics courses teach, could federal aid for college help create an affordability problem? After all, the federal government began spending more on college aid with the Higher Education Act of 1965 and the full funding of Pell Grants in 1975. Since 1979, tuition and fees have tripled after adjusting for inflation. That's much faster than the increase for real estate and teacher pay.

Comment: Image source: Unintended Consequences of Health Reform

Triple Ouch!

I suffered two injuries playing pool today:

• The tip of my thumb was at the edge of the corner pocket. Brother drilled one home and it bounced off my nail. Ouch! Still stinging 2 hours later. A bruise under the nail is developing
• I bounced the cue ball off the table and it landed on the top of my foot. I was in my stocking feet. Double ouch!
• Plus I lost to Brother at 9 ball! Triple ouch!

IRS: Tax Refund Delays

IRS still experiencing delays in sending tax refunds

 Excerpt:

Tax preparers said Thursday that the Internal Revenue Service is continuing to have delays in sending federal tax refunds this year, with hundreds of South Floridians complaining they still haven't gotten their check.

"Our phone is ringing off the hook with people saying they should have their refund by now," said Mark Daly, franchise owner of several Jackson-Hewitt Tax Service outlets in South Florida.

"There's no rhyme or reason why some returns are being quickly processed and others not," Daly added. "We've had hundreds and hundreds of complaints."

"The IRS is experiencing delays this year in sending refunds," said H&R spokesman Gene King in a statement sent Thursday to the Sun Sentinel. "Based on current IRS guidance, most refunds are now issued from the IRS in 10 to 21 days."

Comment: IRS website still reports that my refund will be deposited on 2/21 ....

Win a Trip to New York City

Sweepstakes

Vikings Stadium: Make Wimpy Pay!

Republicans: Vikings should only get loan for new stadium

Republicans: Vikings should only get loan for new stadium

Excerpt:

Saying that they had the only Minnesota Vikings stadium plan that could pass the Legislature, three Republican senators offered a plan Thursday that would limit any direct public subsidy to the team to a $300 million loan.

The proposal -- which the Vikings and Gov. Mark Dayton quickly dismissed -- took the stadium debate at the state Capitol in an entirely different direction: Arguing that the team should only be offered minimal assistance and nothing beyond what other businesses could expect.

The three senators, led by Sen. Roger Chamberlain, R-Lino Lakes, said that the state should not be involved in whether the stadium had “gold-plated tile” and needed to cost $1 billion.

The Legislature “shouldn’t have an interest in whether they build a stadium with a roof or astro-turf, or how many suites they have, or whether it’s in Ramsey County,” said Sen. David Hann, R-Eden Prairie, a co-author of the proposal. “Those are things that the business itself ought to work out with local communities who have interest in hosting that site.”

Comments: My view. Make Zygi Wilf (Wimpy!) pay for it! Color image from No More Wimpy Government. Info on the sponger Wimpy here!