ObamaCare: Counting votes

Can Nancy Pelosi Get the Votes?

Excerpt:

The House passed its version of the health bill in November by 220-215. Of those 220, one was a Republican who now is a no. One Democrat who voted yes has died, two Democrats who voted yes have resigned, and one Democrat who voted no has resigned as well. So if everyone but the Republican votes the way they did four months ago, the score would be 216-215.

But not everyone is ready to vote that way. The House bill included an amendment prohibiting funding of abortions sponsored by Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak. The Senate bill did not. Mr. Stupak says he and 10 to 12 other members won't vote for the Senate bill for that reason. Others have said the same, including Minnesota's James Oberstar, chairman of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, and Dan Lipinski, a product of the Chicago Democratic machine.

Mrs. Pelosi may have some votes in reserve—members who would have voted yes if she needed them in November and would do so again. But we can be pretty sure she doesn't have more than 10, or she wouldn't have allowed the Stupak amendment to come forward at the last minute the first time. She also might get one or two votes from members who voted no and later announced they were retiring.

But that's not enough—and there are other complications. Voting for the Senate bill means voting for the Cornhusker kickback and the Louisiana purchase—the price Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid paid for the votes of Ben Nelson and Mary Landrieu. It's not hard to imagine the ads Republicans could run attacking House members for sending money to Nebraska and Louisiana but not their home states.

To be sure, Democratic leaders say they want to repair the Senate bill by subsequent legislation that could be passed with 51 votes in the Senate under the reconciliation process. But they have yet to produce such a bill. It can't include the Stupak amendment, which experts say doesn't qualify for the reconciliation process. And there's no way they can credibly promise the Senate will pass it. Senate rules allow many forms of obstruction. The reconciliation process is littered with traps.

The Trouble With 'Reconciliation'

Excerpt:

Pro-life House Democrats are deeply disturbed by the Senate abortion-funding language. Blue Dogs are upset by the fact that the Senate bill adds hundreds of billions of dollars to the deficit. Liberals are angry that it doesn't include a "public option." Democrats from Republican-leaning districts are concerned about backroom deals that greased it through the Senate. And some Democrats are unhappy with the Senate bill's tax on the "Cadillac" insurance plans of their allies in Big Labor.

...

If Democrats use reconciliation to enact health-care reform, this fight isn't likely to end this year. Democrats are resorting to reconciliation because that would allow them to avoid a Republican filibuster. That leaves Republicans free to use the same process to repeal ObamaCare that Democrats are using to enact it. It means that for the next several election cycles every GOP Senate candidate can campaign on the promise to be that 51st vote for repeal.

House Democrats are being asked to cast a potential career-ending vote based on their faith that the Senate, with Mr. Obama's blessing, will undo all the disastrous elements of this bill. A year ago that trust might have existed. Today, after all the ugliness this process has created and all the intra-party acrimony it has caused, that trust appears to have disappeared. Some House Democrats have told reporters that they won't make Mr. Obama's latest deadline for passing reform (March 18), and Mrs. Pelosi seems unable to deliver the votes she needs. It seems the beginning of a revolt is underway among House Democrats.

The political costs to Democrats of the epic misadventure that is health-care reform have become more evident every day. The president made his 52nd speech on the subject yesterday but appears increasingly unable to affect the outcome. It's now all on the speaker's shoulders.

House Democrats would be foolish to trust a process that has deeply alienated the American public. Republicans know that and are determined to make House Democrats think hard about the price they will pay for passing this health-care monstrosity.

Comment: There's wisdom in the super-majority! Read Why does the filibuster survive?