Finding "the bottom" of housing prices

In Their Various Ways, Economists Try to Find Right Price for a Home

Excerpt:

he New York Times asked economists across the country to share the data they use to figure out how much houses in regional markets are overvalued, a calculation that approximates where the bottom may be. Models built on these variables show that while some markets — such as California — are on a road to recovery, others — such as south Florida — have a way to go.

These signs cannot possibly tell the whole story, especially since they point more toward where prices should be valued than where they will be. But these measures are nonetheless helpful to anyone buying, selling or borrowing against their home sweet home.

“Anybody who says they know when it’s going to end with confidence is delusional,” said Karl E. Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College and co-creator of the Case-Shiller home price index. “But yes, you can get a sense of where things are going.”

One way to envision the bottom would be to look back at where prices were five or 10 years ago, before the current price run-up. There are some better ways, though.

Noting that home prices have outpaced inflation in the past, one can calculate how much houses appreciated annually in the decades before the bubble, and then figure out how far out of line prices are now. Edward E. Leamer, director of the U.C.L.A. Anderson Forecast, has crunched these numbers for various regional markets.

In Ocean City, N.J., for example, inflation-adjusted house prices rose about 1.6 percent a year from 1988 through 2002. Compared with what this rate would predict, the city’s houses in the first quarter of this year were overvalued by 51 percent. Over the previous year, they had fallen 0.6 percent; at this pace, Ocean City house prices will be at the right level in about 13 years. The model foretells eternal decline for some cities. It predicts that Kingston, N.Y., will not return to “normal” for almost four centuries.

Comment: Notice this: "Kingston, N.Y., will not return to “normal” for almost four centuries." !!!! Good article with helpful charts