It's official: Recession Declared

Dow Plunges 680 Points as Recession Is Declared

Excerpt:

This is the first official recession since 2001, when the economy suffered after the bursting of the technology bubble. The period of expansion lasted 73 months, from November 2001 to December 2007.

Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity

Excerpt:

The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.

Because a recession is a broad contraction of the economy, not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The committee believes that domestic production and employment are the primary conceptual measures of economic activity.

The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. This series reached a peak in December 2007 and has declined every month since then.

NBER list: Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

Peak	Trough	Contraction	Expansion	Cycle (peak to peak)
November 1948	October 1949	11	37	45
July 1953	May 1954	10	45	56
August 1957	April 1958	8	39	49
April 1960	February 1961	10	24	32
December 1969	November 1970	11	106	116
November 1973	March 1975	16	36	47
January 1980	July 1980	6	58	74
July 1981	November 1982	16	12	18
July 1990	March 1991	8	92	108
March 2001	November 2001	8	120	128
December 2007	???	???	73	81

Comment: I remember the recession of 1975. I was a computer salesman (IBM) and sales (and commissions) dropped off significantly.

Here's my question: If December 2007 was the last peak, when do you expect the trough?