2008 Economic Outlook Conference

Comment: I am on a teleconference hosted by Wells Fargo economists. Brief comments (not quotes)

• Worst post-war (WW II) recession
  
• Household debt too high
  
• Expect end to recession in June 2009 (19 months from commencement in Dec '07)
  
• 3.7 M job loss in '09
  
• Unemployment expected to be 8.8% in the 4th Qtr '09
  
• 5.5 M job loss total
  
• Deflation in '09: Oil prices and commodity prices in decline
  
• Inflation expected in '10
  
• Stimulus package size 750B ---> 1T
  
• Fiscal deficit: $ 1.9 T in '09; $ 1 T in '10
  
• Total debt will be 9% of GDP (high and risk) - risk of currency collapse
  

I missed the last 20 m of the meeting (unfortunately).