The Future of the GOP: 2 views

Excerpt:

the Republican coalition, if it still deserves that description, is increasingly constricted, with little space for growth. Not only is the GOP's power largely confined to the South, but the party's complexion displays an unhealthy pallor.

It is, in a word, white -- in an era when America is becoming more diverse, colorful and multiethnic. Nine out of 10 McCain voters were white, in fact, while the supporters of Obama had that more fashionable rainbow look: Out of 10, six were white, two or three were black, one was Hispanic, and the rest were Asian or "other" (perhaps biracial, like the president-elect himself).

Of course, Obama's sweep of African-American voters is hardly surprising. They have been the most reliably Democratic part of the voting population for nearly 80 years. But he also drew two-thirds of Hispanic voters as well, improving on the record of Democrats in the past two presidential elections and his own record in the primaries. Those groups represent the demographic future -- and the Republicans so far have no prospects or plans as the nation enters a period of ethnic change.

Equally ominous for the Republicans is the powerful Democratic preference of young voters, now expressed forcefully for the third national election in a row. Many political scientists believe that adult voting patterns tend to be established before age 30, which if true could lock in a new generation of Democrats. Again, it is not surprising that young minority voters supported Obama or chose Democratic candidates down-ticket, but they attracted a big majority of young white voters as well. Obama defeated John McCain by 10 points in that group, contributing heavily to the overall 2-to-1 Democratic margin among voters under 30.

Thanks in no small degree to the incompetence and corruption of the Republicans who have held power over the past decade or so, almost 40 percent of voters now call themselves Democrats. But just as important is the diminishing burden attached to the "liberal" label, which has been used to such great effect against Democrats over the past three decades.

Perhaps the most revealing post-election data on that question came from within the defeated McCain campaign. In an interview with Roger Simon of Politico, the Republican candidate's speechwriter and friend, Mark Salter, disclosed that in the campaign's own internal polling data, 60 percent of Americans regarded Obama as "liberal." The campaign thought that would be enough to defeat him, which is why it hammered on the "left-wing" themes.

Baiting the liberals didn't work this year. Disgusted with the Republican right, voters wanted something different and weren't afraid to look leftward. That is what "realignment" means.

G.O.P. Dog Days?

Excerpt:

Sure, the election results had been bad — but they weren’t devastating. Obama wasn’t winning the popular vote by double-digit margins, as some polls had suggested he might. Republican losses in the Senate and House were substantial but not catastrophic. Obama was ahead of John McCain by about the same margin with which Bill Clinton defeated George Bush in 1992, and he would be taking over in January with similar Congressional majorities to Clinton’s in 1993.

Well, Newt Gingrich was able to lead a Republican takeover of Congress only two years later. And after his victory in 1976, Jimmy Carter had even larger Democratic margins in Congress. Ronald Reagan trounced him four years later, bringing with him a G.O.P.-controlled Senate and an era of conservative governance.

What’s more, this year’s exit polls suggested a partisan shift but no ideological realignment. In 2008, self-described Democrats made up 39 percent of the electorate and Republicans 32 percent, in contrast with a 37-37 split in 2004.

But there was virtually no change in the voters’ ideological self-identification: in 2008, 22 percent called themselves liberal, up only marginally from 21 percent in 2004; 34 percent were conservative, unchanged from the last election; and 44 percent called themselves moderate, compared with 45 percent in 2004.

In other words, this was a good Democratic year, but it is still a center-right country. Conservatives and the Republican Party will have a real chance for a comeback — unless the skills of the new president turn what was primarily an anti-Bush vote into the basis for a new liberal governing era.

Comment: My concern is "the whiteness" of the GOP. We need to attract Hispanics and Blacks.