How long the Recession?

The Longest Recession Since …


Economists have been forecasting that the current recession will likely end sometime in the spring (which is, presumably, when some of the new stimulus money will start to be spent). If they’re right, this recession will be roughly as long as the 1973-75 recession and the 1980-81 recession, both of which were 16 months. To find a longer one than that, you have to go back to the Depression.

Comment: I'm pessimistic about that time frame because:

  1. I have read about a commercial real estate mortgage crisis (Meltdown far from over, new mortgage crisis looms)
  2. I don't think housing is anywhere close to bottoming out (Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break?) (By the way: Good news if you are buying a home!)
  3. There are more ARM resets that will force more into foreclosure (Closer Look At The ARMs Reset Problem)
  4. The last stimulus package seemed to do so little (Reality Checks: Living costs are keeping stimulus-money recipients from going on shopping sprees)
  5. The national savings rate is so low, and consumers are so extended that they are unable to borrow (see yesterday's posting)
  6. Back to the stimulus: putting money into consumers' wallets to have them spend on imported goods (think of China-Mart (er Wall Mart)) really does nothing to help US manufacturing
  7. Job losses are just beginning to climb (coincidentally, a guy at work told me just today that today is his last day!)

My own thought is that the recession may go all the way through 2009 and end in the 1st or 2nd QTR of 2010.

1 comment:

  1. I agree. My take is that the length of the recession in years will be proportional to the number of bailouts the government attempts. Lots of bailouts? You just might get another 16 year down period like the Depression. (consumer spending finally revived in 1946 for all practical purposes)


Any anonymous comments with links will be rejected. Please do not comment off-topic