Dobson's miscalculation

Dobson's Choice

Excerpts:

Last year some of these same people said they could never vote for Rudy Giuliani, who was then leading in the GOP polls despite favoring abortion rights and civil unions for gay couples. We thought that was short-sighted, given Mr. Giuliani's pledge to appoint conservative Supreme Court Justices. But at least in the case of Mayor Giuliani, Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council and Mr. Dobson could point to a record on abortion at odds with their views.

That's not the case with Mr. McCain, who has a long pro-life record and has voted for every conservative Justice now on the Supreme Court. The Arizona Senator added this week that if elected he would nominate Justices in the mold of Samuel Alito and John Roberts. Social conservatives hate the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance restrictions, though probably not as much as we do. They also dislike Mr. McCain's support for publicly funded stem-cell research. But on the central question of abortion rights that Mr. Dobson and friends care so deeply about, Mr. McCain is on their side.

Moreover, any major change in abortion law can only be accomplished through the Supreme Court. For that matter, every cultural controversy these days seems to end up at the High Court, whether or not legislatures have spoken on the question. The Presidential winner in November will probably appoint no fewer than two Supreme Court Justices. The likeliest vacancies, from an actuarial perspective, will come from the liberal wing of the Court.

...
Mr. McCain's harshest critics argue that his judicial picks could easily be as bad as anyone tapped by Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama. This is caricature, but even if it had merit, the likes of Mr. Dobson would be trading the risk that Mr. McCain picks moderates for the court for the certainty that his opponent would appoint liberals.

It's always possible Mr. McCain would make a bad Supreme Court nomination, just as Ronald Reagan picked Anthony Kennedy, who later affirmed Roe v. Wade. As we recall it, social conservatives at the time promoted Mr. Kennedy because he was Catholic and let it be known that he personally opposed abortion, while they frowned on Judge Laurence Silberman because he supported abortion rights as a personal matter even as he opposed Roe as a matter of law. Justice Kennedy has been a catastrophe for cultural conservatives, while Judge Silberman recently wrote the landmark appellate decision favoring gun rights now being heard by the Supremes.

The conservative coalition has learned a lot about picking judges since 1987, and especially since the nomination of David Souter by another Republican President. As the Harriet Myers interlude proved, another mystery pick by Mr. McCain or any other GOP President is far less likely than it used to be.

Mr. Dobson and other social conservatives may decide they can't vote for Mr. McCain for any number of reasons. What they can't do with any credibility is claim that helping to elect a liberal President will further the causes that these conservatives claim to believe most deeply in.

Comment: James Dobson wants to be a King-maker! I personally have grown very weary of him! calculation: "cold heartless planning to promote self-interest"