Subprime macroeconomic shock

Goldman Sees Subprime Cutting $2 Trillion in Lending

Excerpts:

The slump in global credit markets may force banks, brokerages and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion and trigger a ``substantial recession'' in the U.S., according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Losses related to record home foreclosures using a ``back- of-the-envelope'' calculation may be as high as $400 billion for financial companies, Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman in New York wrote in a report dated yesterday. The effects may be amplified tenfold as companies that borrowed to finance their investments scale back lending, the report said.

``The likely mortgage credit losses pose a significantly bigger macroeconomic risk than generally recognized,'' Hatzius wrote. ``It is easy to see how such a shock could produce a substantial recession'' or ``a long period of very sluggish growth,'' he wrote.

Goldman's forecast reduction in lending is equivalent to 7 percent of total U.S. household, corporate and government debt, hurting an economy already beset by the slowing housing market. Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Stumpf said yesterday that the property market is the worst since the Great Depression.

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Hatzius said his report is based on a ``conservative estimate'' of financial companies cutting lending by 10 times the loss to their capital. Investors realizing half of the potential losses, at $200 billion, would have to scale back lending by $2 trillion, he said.

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Goldman's outlook matches forecasts by Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel-prize winning former World Bank economist, who said in an interview today that the U.S. faces a ``very major slowdown, maybe recession'' because of a ``consumption binge'' fueled by household borrowing.

``What it all comes down to is that Joe Six-Pack has been taking equity out of his house and supporting the U.S. economy,'' said Simon Ballard, global credit strategist at ABN Amro Asset Management in London. ``Now house prices are correcting, the bubble is deflating. You're going to see the engine of global growth significantly weaker.''

Comments: I feel like I am living out my degree in Economics watching this unfold!