"Ms. Landrieu is alone" ... and soon to be OOO (out of office)
In Louisiana Runoff Election, Senator Landrieu Tries to Revive Her Base
Excerpt:
The rise of the first black president helped accelerate the white migration to the Republicans, which was reflected in the Republican tide that swept away many surviving Democratic officeholders across the South in November. And Louisiana lost a hefty chunk of its black population after Hurricane Katrina. Ms. Landrieu was the top vote-getter in Louisiana’s nonpartisan primary in November. But Mr. Cassidy, a 57-year-old doctor, has hewed closely to his party’s recent strategy of nationalizing congressional elections. He and outside spending groups have reminded voters that Ms. Landrieu voted with President Obama 97 percent of the time. They have also criticized her for voting in favor of the Affordable Care Act, characterizing it as the “deciding vote for Obamacare.” But other numbers are just as ominous for Ms. Landrieu. Elliott Stonecipher, a political analyst in Shreveport, La., said that the growing degree to which whites have become Republicans and the loss of an estimated 125,000 Democratic voters after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 meant that Democrats now represented about 47 percent of Louisiana’s overall voter registration, compared to more than 60 percent in 2000. Ms. Landrieu was able to overcome that problem in 2008 in part because of Mr. Obama’s presence on the ticket and the lift it gave to Democratic turnout, Mr. Stonecipher said. But this time, Ms. Landrieu is alone. “She has literally been watching the power of her political brand disappear,” he said.Mary Landrieu, Deep South’s last Senate Democrat, must fend for herself
There remains the formality of a runoff election on Saturday — but as far as the national Democratic Party is concerned, three-term Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana is presumed dead. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee canceled its plans to buy ads and is not lifting a finger — or writing a check — to save her. Nor are any of the heavy-hitting Democratic outside groups.Comment: Image source
The 'zombie runoff':
ReplyDeleteIt's not over until it's over," Landrieu said of the campaign, which has been left for dead by national Democrats. "The only poll that counts is Election Day."
few of the reporters and political types standing nearby exchanged knowing glances.
As defined by political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, who curated the definitive list of "Things Losing Candidates Say" for Roll Call last year, the luckless phrase is a pretty good indicator that "you are losing the race at the time and have no empirical evidence to the contrary."
The evidence is stacked against Landrieu, who advanced to the runoff after losing a strategic bet that she would win Louisiana's non-partisan primary outright four weeks ago. Instead, she got 42 percent, far short of the 50.1% needed to win, and voters are now consolidating around Cassidy.
If Landrieu pulls it out on Saturday, it would be an epic fourth quarter miracle that would put Les Miles to shame. She will have to keep African-American turnout on par with the November primary, and somehow find a way to increase her support among white voters from the dreadful 18 percent she received last month, all in the middle of the holiday season. It's a near-impossible lift.
There hasn't been a gold standard poll of the race, but she's losing by 15 or 20 points depending on the survey.
The actions of national Democrats are an even better tell. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee canceled its ad reservations for the runoff after Landrieu failed to win the Nov. 4 jungle primary outright, effectively ceding the airwaves to Cassidy and Republicans, who are outspending her 7-1 on television.
Interesting how "big business" supported her the first round: Business’s Cynical Bet in Louisiana - The state’s business community didn’t support Republican Bill Cassidy for Senate, but it will benefit from his likely runoff victory.
ReplyDelete... this newspaper reported in April, big business was all in for a Landrieu victory. Corporate interests had already by that point given the Democrat five times as much money as Mr. Cassidy. The spending splurge was spearheaded by the very oil and gas industry targeted by Ms. Landrieu’s party: Exxon, BP, Chevron , ConocoPhillips , local Gulf gas companies. The American Petroleum Institute, Edison Electric, the American Chemistry Council—all threw money at her campaign.
Latest polls: Cassidy = 58%.
ReplyDeleteAt the end of the day one more Democratic Senator who voted for Obamacare will be gone!