Rove's Political Predictions for 2012

Political Predictions for 2012


  • Republicans will keep the U.S. House, albeit with their 25-seat majority slightly reduced. In the 10 presidential re-elections since 1936, the party in control of the White House has added House seats in seven contests and lost them in three. The average gain has been 12 seats. The largest pickup was 24 seats in 1944—but President Barack Obama is no FDR, despite what he said in his recent "60 Minutes" interview.
  • Republicans will take the U.S. Senate. Of the 23 Democratic seats up in 2012, there are at least five vulnerable incumbents (Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania): The GOP takes two or three of these. With the announcement on Tuesday that Nebraska's Ben Nelson will retire, there are now seven open Democratic seats (Connecticut, Hawaii, North Dakota, New Mexico, Virginia, Wisconsin): The GOP takes three or four. Even if Republicans lose one of the 10 seats they have up, they will have a net pickup of four to six seats, for a majority of 51 to 53.

Comment: Rove's article is interesting. Here are several of mine
  • Romney will win the Republican nomination.
  • Possible Republican VP candidates: Tim Pawlenty; Condi Rice; Rick Santorum
  • Romney will be elected!
  • The SCOTUS will overturn Obamacare's health insurance mandate
More predictions for 2012:
  • Unemployment will briefly drop and then increase before the election
  • Eurozone crisis is far from resolved. The stock market will continue to be volatile
  • Iran will continue to be an issue. Things could heat up fast.

Comment ... take all of the above with a grain of salt!

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