Showing posts with label North Korea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label North Korea. Show all posts

12.28.2017

The Big Question for 2018: War with North Korea?



Trump Is Bluffing About Attacking North Korea in 2018

Excerpt:

This past year, after all, is ending with a flurry of war talk. On Dec. 20, the Daily Telegraph published an article quoting a current and two former U.S. officials claiming that the Trump administration was considering a military strike on North Korea. Now, the Telegraph is not, as Jim Hacker would tell you, the most reliable British tabloid. But two days later, Olivier Knox of Yahoo News published a strangely similar story with slightly different sourcing — two current and one former official. In both cases, a former official used the same description to describe a strike similar to the cruise missile attack on Syria — giving Pyongyang a “bloody nose.”
United States should resolve to avoid war with North Korea in 2018

Excerpt:

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a keen observer of foreign affairs who has become a confidante of President Donald Trump, recently put the odds of Trump authorizing a preventive strike against North Korea at 3 in 10. Graham may be overly optimistic. North Korea's nuclear and missile programs are rapidly colliding with Trump's recklessness to make the possibility of a second Korean war the single greatest threat to world peace in 2018.
Will North Korea and the US go to war in 2018?

Excerpt:

With the sour note relations between North Korea and the U.S. are ending on this year, the prospect of war in 2018 is all the more real. North Korea on Sunday called a round of punishing sanctions the United Nations unanimously approved on Friday an “act of war.” “We define this ‘sanctions resolution’ rigged up by the U.S. and its followers as a grave infringement upon the sovereignty of our republic, as an act of war violating peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula and the region, and categorically reject the ‘resolution,’” the North’s foreign ministry said in a statement released by the state-controlled Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
South Korea predicts U.S.-North Korea talks will take place in 2018

Excerpt:

North Korea will be open to talks with the United States next year, South Korea's government cheerfully predicted Tuesday as part of its 2018 outlook. In its official forecast, South Korea reasoned that North Korea would pursue diplomatic dialogue and engagement with Washington — not open confrontation — because it was likely to seek international recognition of its status as a nuclear-armed country. "North Korea may continue to advance its nuclear and missile capabilities while searching for an outlet externally," South Korea's Ministry of Unification said in its predictions for North Korea in 2018, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency. "In searching for the recognition of its status as a de facto nuclear-possessing state, (the North) would explore the possibility of negotiations with the U.S."
Why 2018 will be North Korea's year

Excerpt:

In many respects, 2018 will be a virtual repeat of 2017: more missile tests starting in the early spring followed by at least one big nuclear test, lots of fiery rhetoric from both sides and a Trump administration agonizing over how best to respond.
Trump Warns Against Illicit Chinese Oil Sales to North Korea

Excerpt:

The Chosun Ilbo, a South Korean newspaper, reported Dec. 26 that U.S. spy satellites had observed Chinese vessels allegedly transferring oil to North Korean ships in the sea between the two countries about 30 times since October, citing unidentified South Korea government officials. Fox News summarized the Korean paper’s report on Wednesday.

Comment: Image source 

On a personal note: Will my cancer be in remission a year from now? Praying

Posted by Jim Peet at 12/28/2017 05:45:00 PM 0 comments

Labels:

9.24.2017

North Korea: Four Scenarios



Scenario #1: coup d'état North Korean Regime Crumbling




Excerpt:

Declaring that “Kim Jong Un’s days are numbered,” one of the highest-ranking North Korean officials to ever defect to South Korea shared rare firsthand knowledge and insight into the what he describes as the deteriorating situation inside the secretive and repressive Kim Jong Un regime.

“The elite class, which had supported North Korean society, has turned their backs on Kim Jong Un. Traditional structures of the North Korean system are crumbling,” said Thae Yong-ho, North Korea’s former deputy ambassador in London, who defected to South Korea in July.

...The possibility of a military coup inside North Korea is remote because the leadership is loyal to Kim, he said. Although he notes that many in the armed forces are also frustrated with the current system.

Thae is currently an analyst at the Institute for National Security Strategy, a research organization affiliated with South Korea’s National Intelligence Service.
Scenario #2: 'surgical strike' (no response by DPRK) South Korea's military draws up plans for a 'surgical strike' to take out Kim Jong-un's missile and nuclear facilities if orders are given to remove the dictator



Excerpt:

South Korea's military is drawing up plans for a 'surgical strike' to take out Kim Jong-un's missile and nuclear facilities if orders are given to remove the dictator.

Taurus cruise missiles fired from F-15 fighters would be used to destroy the facilities if President Moon Jae-in gives the go ahead in an emergency, it is claimed.

The contingency measure would be initiated by the President's Special Forces, according to reports by Seoul newspaper Munwha Ilbo.
Scenario #3: 'surgical strike' (response by DPRK) In North Korea, ‘Surgical Strike’ Could Spin Into ‘Worst Kind of Fighting’



Excerpt:

Over the years, as it does for potential crises around the world, the Pentagon has drafted and refined multiple war plans, including an enormous retaliatory invasion and limited pre-emptive attacks, and it holds annual military exercises with South Korean forces based on them.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration made a point of threatening a military response. Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, commander of the American forces that conducted a missile exercise with South Korea, said the United States had chosen “self-restraint” with the North. Nikki R. Haley, the American ambassador to the United Nations, said her country’s “considerable military forces” were an option. “We will use them if we must, but we prefer not to have to go in that direction,” she told the Security Council.

But the military options are more grim than ever.

Even the most limited strike risks staggering casualties, because North Korea could retaliate with the thousands of artillery pieces it has positioned along its border with the South. Though the arsenal is of limited range and could be destroyed in days, the United States defense secretary, Jim Mattis, recently warned that if North Korea used it, it “would be probably the worst kind of fighting in most people’s lifetimes.”
Scenario #4: North Korea attacks:  North Korean threats make Bay Area ponder the unthinkable: a nuclear attack




Excerpt:

For the first time since the end of the Cold War, Bay Area residents are being forced to confront the unthinkable: the possibility of a nuclear attack on our own soil.

It’s a scenario that suddenly became real after reports that the North Korean government has figured out how to make a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on an intercontinental missile — and after President Donald Trump vowed North Koreans would face “fire and fury” if they continued making threats, in an apparently improvised public response.

A nuclear strike would be devastating to the Bay Area, and there’s no preparation that could avoid that. But there are a few simple steps — like staying inside instead of trying to flee — that can help prevent radiation poisoning and save lives, experts say.
Comment: What do you think?

Posted by Jim Peet at 9/24/2017 09:16:00 PM 5 comments

Labels:

8.12.2017

Imagining the unimaginable - a DPRK strike






Is Trump a madman or a strategic genius?

Excerpt:

Trump is talking far tougher than Obama or Bush ever did. The traditional American political establishment is getting quite nervous.

Is Trump a madman, or is his behaviour actually genius?

Madman theory is believed to be part of nuclear strategy. Former US President Richard Nixon is supposed to have invented it when he commanded the US nuclear arsenal during the Vietnam War and cold war. The book Nixonland by Rick Perlstein tells it like this:

“I call it the madman theory, Bob,” the Republican Presidential nominee had told his closest aide, walking on the beach one day in 1968.“I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We’ll slip the word to them that ‘For God’s sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about Communism. We can’t restrain him when he’s angry – and he has his hand on the nuclear button.’ And Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days, begging for peace.”

For a nuclear threat to be credible it has, of course, to seem real.

Trump’s apparent willingness to take the wraps off US nukes for the first time since 1945 is frightening. And that could be exactly the point. Everyone knew Obama was cautious and considered – he couldn’t believably use madman theory. Trump could be executing a strategic pivot that only he can pull off.
Comment: I modeled San Fransisco where my daughter lives using NukeMap
Meanwhile:
Scary thought:


Kim walks it back .... for now

Posted by Jim Peet at 8/12/2017 08:14:00 PM 0 comments

Labels: , ,

8.11.2017

The Caroline affair and the Doctrine of Preemptive Self-Defense





North Korea says Guam strike plan ready within days

Excerpt:

A North Korean plan to fire four missiles near the US Pacific territory of Guam will be ready for Kim Jong Un's consideration in days, state media has reported, as an unprecedented exchange of military threats between Washington and Pyongyang intensifies.

The intermediate-range missiles would be fired east and over Japan before landing around 30 to 40 kilometers (18 to 25 miles) off the coast of the tiny island if the plan is implemented, according to state-run KCNA. Guam is more than 3,000 kilometers from North Korea.

Take cover, avoid bomb flash. Guam issues nuclear guidelines




Excerpt:

While the governor of Guam shrugged off the North's missile warning and said there was no heightened threat, the government has issued a preparedness fact sheet.

In language that evoked the specter of nuclear conflict during the Cold War, the guidelines cover what to do before, during and after a nuclear attack.

"Do not look at the flash or fireball – It can blind you," it said. "Take cover behind anything that might offer protection."

"Remove your clothing to keep radioactive material from spreading. Removing the outer layer of clothing can remove up to 90% of radioactive material," read the guidelines of what to do if caught outside.

They suggest having an emergency plan and supply kit and making a list of potential concrete structures near home, work and school to serve as fallout shelters."Fallout shelters do not need to be specifically constructed for protecting against fallout," it said. "They can be protected space, provided that the walls and roof are thick and dense enough (i.e. concrete) to absorb radiation given off by fallout particles."
Could Trump launch a first strike against North Korea? Views differ, but it could be justified if it's seen as an act of self-defense by the U.S.

Excerpt:

... there are situations in which a first strike can be interpreted as legally justified.

Michael Schmitt, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said three basic requirements must be met: The other country must have the ability to attack, its behavior must show that an attack is imminent, and there are no other ways to forestall it.

North Korea’s military power appears to have satisfied the first requirement. But under the second, “we have to determine whether the statements by Kim are bluster or he actually intends to carry them out,” Schmitt said. Under the third requirement, he said, “you can only act in self-defense when if you don’t act, it’s going to be too late.”

While North Korea may have an ability to attack the U.S., there is skepticism that an attack is imminent. And many officials, including some of Trump’s senior aides, have said other options have not been exhausted.

“I think that the answer to the question is fairly unequivocally ‘no,’ ” said Kevin Jon Heller, a law professor at the University of London. “There’s no right of self-defense against a nonimminent threat.”

Legal experts said an attack of self-defense in such circumstances must be “proportional” — meaning it is designed only to stop the threat. “It is not a carte blanche to destroy another country,” Schmitt said.

North Korea has a well-established penchant for making threats without following through on them.

“Kim says all kinds of crazy things, with no history besides incendiary statements,” said Anthony Clark Arend, a professor of foreign service at Georgetown University.

At least some of the military planning for an attack by North Korea, including troop movements and missile launch preparations, would almost certainly be detected.

“If North Korea were preparing for an attack, you’d see it,” Arend said.

It’s a matter of debate whether the United Nations charter permits one state to attack another before it is attacked. Article 2 of the charter prohibits states from using or threatening force against one another, while Article 51 does not prohibit the “inherent right of individual or collective self-defense.”

But Article 51 has been interpreted in different ways. Under the restrictive interpretation, an attack must happen before the attacked state can use force. Less restrictive interpretations argue that a state threatened by attack does not need to wait.

What defines an imminent attack? That is also a matter of debate. In the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, when Israeli commanders ordered an attack after Egyptian forces massed on the border, “many people thought it was reasonable for Israel to conclude an attack was imminent,” said Ashley Deeks, a University of Virginia School of Law professor.

When Israeli jets destroyed an atomic reactor in Iraq in 1981, Israel was condemned in a unanimous Security Council resolution. Many said that the imminent threat standard had not been met.

What constitutes imminence has been muddied by terrorists, cyberattacks and other more nebulous threats. “Allies … agree that the idea of imminence can’t just mean right as a weapon is lifting off the launchpad,” Deeks said.

Most scholars say legality for a pre-attack strike was an established after what is known as the Caroline incident of 1837, named for an American steamship suspected of supplying Canadian rebels against British rule. The ship was boarded by British soldiers who killed several Americans, set it ablaze and sent it over Niagara Falls. The British claimed they were acting in self-defense, an argument angrily rejected by Secretary of State Daniel Webster.

The matter was settled with an agreement on the conditions constituting legitimate self-defense in anticipation of an attack. As Webster described it, a state must demonstrate that the “necessity of that self-defense is instant, overwhelming and leaving no choice of means and no moment for deliberation.”


The Caroline test

Excerpt:

The terms "anticipatory self-defense", "preemptive self-defense" and "preemption" traditionally refers to a state's right to strike first in self-defense when faced with imminent attack. In order to justify such an action, the Caroline test has two distinct requirements:
  1. The use of force must be necessary because the threat is imminent and thus pursuing peaceful alternatives is not an option (necessity);
  2. The response must be proportionate to the threat (proportionality).
In Webster's original formulation, the necessity criterion is described as "instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means, and no moment of deliberation". This has later come to be referred to as "instant and overwhelming necessity".

Comments: War has to be the last choice

Posted by Jim Peet at 8/11/2017 01:12:00 PM 0 comments

Labels: , , ,

3.06.2017

It's high time we deal with North Korea

Posted by Jim Peet at 3/06/2017 07:44:00 PM 1 comments

Labels:

1.07.2016

Understanding "the market": a "cacophony of exogenous events"






How long the stock selling stampede may last

 Excerpt:

On Thursday, Saut blamed a "cacophony of exogenous events" for derailing the traditional year-end rally and leading to the worst start to a new year on Wall Street since 2008.

It all began with "the $1.2 trillion options and futures expiration" on quadruple-witching Friday on Dec. 18, Saut said. "That upset the rhythm of the rally. But we gathered our strength and came back the next week.

And then you've been hit by this potential war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Chinese slowdown, and the 'H-bomb' of North Korea." "The markets look like they're in a free fall right here," he said. "It feels like we're in one of those selling stampedes, and they typically last 17 to 25 sessions. And this would be only session six. I would be more cautious here."
Comments:

  • Who could blame the Saudis for having nuke ambitions?! Imagine the Middle - East with Muslims with Nukes!!! 
  • On the China slowdown: The market is soft because of fears the Chinese economy has slipped or will slip into recession. My take is that it will! WSJ has more on this here. Image above is capture from this article.
  • On DPRK and the H-Bomb: doubt it but  Kim Jong-un is the bad boy brat of the region
  • Updated: 3rd photo from this article. See also


More: 

The stock selloff is happening in a parallel universe
Do we all live in China now? Investors could be excused for thinking that, given that arcane indicators such as a Chinese manufacturing index and the value of the Chinese yuan are inducing nauseating drops in the U.S. stock market. And the surprise halt to trading in the latest Chinese session, a mere 30 minutes after markets opened, has thrown U.S. and European markets into a tailspin.

Last we checked, however, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes were composed of U.S. companies that might do some business in China, but still earn the vast majority of their revenue elsewhere. And elsewhere, economic fundamentals are looking way better than the gloomy start to this year’s trading would suggest. The U.S. economy will probably grow around 2.5% this year, which isn’t great, but is a sustainable pace that seems nowhere near overheating. The economy can progress at that measured pace for a long time before the next downturn occurs.

Another perspective chart:



Posted by Jim Peet at 1/07/2016 10:23:00 AM 1 comments

Labels: , , , , ,

12.15.2015

Kim Jong-Un's failed "Spice Girls diplomacy"





Kim Jong-un 'ordered girl group home over Chinese snub'

Excerpt:

A Chinese government official told Yonhap that North Korea initially expected Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, to attend he concert, but was horrified at the offer of only a politburo member. The concert had been billed as a sign of improving relations between the two countires. Beijing decided to downgrade its presence on Thursday, the day that the Moranbong Band arrived in the Chinese capital and the same day that the North Korean leader claimed his scientists had built and deployed a hydrogen bomb
Chinese officials discovered Kim Jong Un worship would be a recurring theme throughout the performance and began making changes that North Korea found unacceptable.

Excerpt:

The abrupt cancellation of Moranbong's weeklong "friendship" tour in Beijing could have been the result of a dispute between Beijing and Pyongyang, but analysts said the outcome is unlikely to affect bilateral relations. South Korea's National Intelligence Service told Joo Ho-young, a ruling party lawmaker and chairman of the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee, the Beijing concert was suddenly canceled on Saturday after Chinese officials discovered Kim Jong Un worship would be a recurring theme in the performance. Officials then decided to limit the spectatorship to low-ranking Chinese officials that incited a backlash from the North Koreans, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported.
South Korea Worries Over Rising Threat From North - Breakdown of inter-Korean talks and cancellation of female pop band’s Beijing shows fuel worries

Excerpt:

The failure of recent inter-Korean talks and sudden cancellation of shows in China by a North Korean band close to dictator Kim Jong Un increase the possibility that Pyongyang will revert to military provocations, officials and experts say. On Saturday, North Korea pulled out of cross-border talks after South Korea said it refused the country’s demand to resume a tourism project that once provided Pyongyang with tens of millions of dollars each year. A few hours earlier, North Korea’s relationship with China appeared to sour when a troupe of female performers flew back to the North Korean capital hours before they were due to appear in the first of a series of shows for Chinese officials in Beijing. In 2012, Mr. Kim formed the all-female Moranbong Band, whose high heels and short skirts contrast sharply with North Korea’s familiar dour militarism. The band’s pop performances, often attended by Mr. Kim, feature western hits such as the theme from “Rocky” and upbeat odes to North Korea’s leadership.
Comment: Kinda "leggy" by North Korean standards! They should be on the Today Show!

YouTube Video

Posted by Jim Peet at 12/15/2015 09:58:00 AM 2 comments

Labels: , ,

7.06.2013

North Korea's feared "Balloon Boy"



Park Sang Hak: North Korea's 'Enemy Zero'

Excerpt:

It's nerve-racking to drive toward the North Korean border with Park Sang Hak. Called "Fireball" by his admirers, the North Korean-born Mr. Park is designated "Enemy Zero" by the Pyongyang regime, which two years ago sent an agent into South Korea to assassinate him with a poison-tipped pen. On this summer morning, he promises to do again what so infuriates the Kim dictatorship—launch large balloons into North Korea carrying leaflets, computer-memory sticks and sweets for the oppressed people of the hermit kingdom. In return, Pyongyang promises to "physically eliminate the kind of human scum that commits such treason." Adds the North Korean military: "The U.S. and the present puppet authorities of South Korea should not forget even a moment that the Rimjin Pavilion"—Mr. Park's favorite launch site near the Demilitarized Zone separating the two countries—"is within the range of direct sighting strike" of the Korean People's Army.
Comment: Image source. That a regime is afraid of sweets and leaflets is telling!

Posted by Jim Peet at 7/06/2013 01:41:00 PM 0 comments

Labels: ,

6.17.2013

Kim Jong Un: Stand Clear



KIM JONG UN HANDS COPIES OF 'MEIN KAMPF' TO TOP OFFICERS

Excerpt:

One source says that Kim Jong Un has been ratcheting up his wild behavior in an attempt to create some sort of charisma. “One source says there have been many overt attempts to imbue Kim Jong Un with an ‘intimidating charisma,’ such as having him shout very forcefully at associates … and even throwing things at people,” says the paper’s international editor, Shirley Lee.
Comment: Kim Jong Un: Mister Popularity.

Posted by Jim Peet at 6/17/2013 04:00:00 PM 0 comments

Labels: ,

6.02.2013

The Worthless Won (North Korean Won)




Insight: North Korean economy surrenders to foreign currency invasion

Excerpt:

Faith in the North Korean won crumbled when Kim's father, Kim Jong-il, ordered the sudden revaluation of the currency in November 2009.

The government chopped two zeroes off banknotes and limited the amount of old money that could be exchanged for new cash. The move, seen as an attack on private market activity at the time, spurred a rush to hold hard currency.

It also quickened inflation and according to South Korea's spy agency, sparked rare civil unrest in one of the world's most entrenched authoritarian states after North Koreans realized the won was not a safe store of value.

The government is widely believed to have executed the economic official who oversaw the revaluation. Dollars have circulated in North Korea for decades, partly because of the cash siphoned off from official foreign trade. The rise in the use of yuan is a more recent phenomenon and reflects a surge in trade and smuggling between North Korea and China along their 1,400 km (875 mile) land border, where a lot of the currency changes hands. Official trade with China is worth $6 billion annually.

Black market rates illustrate how far the won has fallen since the revaluation. It has plunged from 30 to one U.S. dollar to about 8,500, according to exchange rates tracked by Daily NK. The current official exchange rate is about 130 won per dollar.
Comment: Buy on Ebay if interested

Posted by Jim Peet at 6/02/2013 07:43:00 PM 0 comments

Labels:

3.13.2013

These birds will be eaten on Tuesday with coffee made from snow

‘North Korean’ propaganda video shows dystopian America

Comment: Yummy

Posted by Jim Peet at 3/13/2013 10:58:00 AM 3 comments

Labels:

1.29.2013

Kim Jong IL and the magical hummingbird



Comment: HT: Bored Panda. Image credits: imgur. He had an ordinary death!

Posted by Jim Peet at 1/29/2013 06:17:00 PM 0 comments

Labels: ,

1.24.2013

Ode to “Parka of Kim Jong Il during his field guidance”

North Korea's poets of propaganda stay true to their muse despite world's laughter
Excerpt:
"His parka was that of a great father, with which he kept all the people on this land from snow, rain and cold,”
Comment: I have an old LLBean wool shirt that is thread-bare in back.


Red and black checks it is ... the wife tried to trash ... it will be kept and worn .... else the woman will be thrashed!

Posted by Jim Peet at 1/24/2013 12:17:00 PM 0 comments

Labels:

12.23.2011

Myth-Building in North Korea

Pyongyang Myth-Builders Step It Up

Excerpt:

The Official Line
Some of the regime-driven mythology surrounding North Korea's leaders

About Kim Il Sung, founder of North Korea: He once made a hand grenade from a pine cone to blow up an American tank.

About his son and successor, Kim Jong Il: When he was born, the sky was filled with lightning and thunder, and a rainbow.

About the new leader, Kim Jong Eun: He is 'an excellent general who displays the extraordinary talent of hitting the center of the target no matter how many times he fires.'

Comment: One wonders when North Korea will be free!

Posted by Jim Peet at 12/23/2011 02:48:00 PM 2 comments

Labels:

6.03.2011

The 2nd Happiest Nation


North Korea, the world's second happiest nation... according to North Korea

Excerpt:

China is the world's happiest nation, followed by North Korea, according to recently released North Korean government research.

The blissful top five is rounded out by Cuba, Venezuela and Iran, reports the International Business Times, which picked up the news from Chinese-language outlet Chaoxian.

Comment: The happiest place (not a nation mind you!) is Disneyland! Everyone knows that!

Posted by Jim Peet at 6/03/2011 01:52:00 PM 0 comments

Labels:

11.27.2010

Carter's rose colored glasses

Duped in North Korea: From Obama's Mentor to Jimmy Carter

Excerpt:

In June 1994, Carter visited North Korea. He was hosted by Kim Il-sung, a tyrant, who died mere days later. And yet, Carter reported that Kim was "vigorous, alert, [and] intelligent" and had engaged in "very free discussions with his ministers." Kim spearheaded a militantly atheistic regime, which jailed Christians; Carter, however, discovered a Kim "very friendly toward Christianity."

For the impressionable ex-president, Kim provided the full Potemkin village treatment. To say Carter was suckered is an understatement. He wrote this report:

People are busy. They work 48 hours a week. ... We found Pyongyang to be a bustling city. The only difference is that during working hours there are very few people on the street. They all have jobs or go to school. And after working hours, they pack the department stores, which Rosalynn visited. I went in one of them. It's like Wal-Mart in American stores on a Saturday afternoon. They all walk around in there, and they seem in fairly good spirits. Pyongyang at night looks like Times Square. They are really heavily into bright neon lights and pictures and things like that.


Of course, in truth, North Korea is draped in darkness, as well-known satellite photos attest. Worse, within just one year of this incredibly gullible appraisal by Carter, 10%-15% of the North Korean population (two to three million people) starved to death -- the worst famine in modern times.

Adding insult to injury, a few years after that, North Korea announced that it was a nuclear state, a direct violation of the "Agreed Framework" brokered by Carter in 1994. Then, Carter triumphantly assured us that "the crisis is over" -- words headlined by both the New York Times and Washington Post.

Needless to say, the crisis was far from over. And when George W. Bush, saddled with this agreement, which North Korea was clearly violating, declared the Kim regime part of an "axis of evil," Carter protested. "I think it will take years before we can repair the damage done by that statement," sniffed Carter.

Comment: A very good and very well documented article. Love the quote, "very friendly toward Christianity"

Posted by Jim Peet at 11/27/2010 12:30:00 PM 0 comments

Labels: ,

11.24.2010

What does it say when we have to ask China to support us?

Obama Likely Spurned as China Stands by North Korea Ally

Excerpt:

resident Barack Obama’s call for China to put more pressure on North Korea to stop military attacks on South Korea may go unheeded in Beijing, where officials refuse to pin any blame on their ally, analysts say.

Obama, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan and South Korean President Lee Myung Bak called for China to use its influence to control North Korea’s behavior, following yesterday’s deadly artillery salvo.

Comment: China has our money and now seemingly has our will!

Posted by Jim Peet at 11/24/2010 08:43:00 PM 0 comments

Labels: , ,

The Two Koreas - Motivations

North Korean Radio Explains Clash

On what motivates the North - excerpt:

In an interview with the BBC, Brian Myers, an American expert on North Korea, suggested:

We need to keep in mind that North Korea is a self-described ‘military-first’ state — in other words, a state which justifies its existence not on the basis of any kind of economic promises or economic claims but on the basis of the claim to be the stronger of the two Koreas, the Korea that is standing up for itself. And when you have that kind of raison d’etre, then you need military victories on a periodic basis — or, at least, provocations of the outside world.

New Focus on North’s Food Shortage

More on the North - Excerpt:

“They’re in a desperate situation, and they want food immediately, not next year,” Mr. Choi said on Wednesday. “Food is the No. 1 issue.”

Others used harsher terms.

“This incident seems to fit the pattern of a Mafia shakedown,” said Tim Peters, a longtime resident in Seoul and head of Helping Hands Korea, an nongovernmental organization that works with North Korean defectors. “It’s a Mafia extortion by the Kim regime. And it has worked for them before: It’s the feed-us-or-we’ll-shoot-you approach. And now with winter coming on, they’re trying to get more food aid.”

“The regime wants just enough food to keep the population from turning.”

Analysts Puzzle Over Cause of Flare-Up

North alleges that the South fired first - Excerpt:

The South Korean Defense Ministry said the attack on the island was unprovoked. In a statement on Wednesday, Mr. Lee called the attack “unprecedented.”

“It was a premeditated provocation and an indiscriminate attack against civilians,” he said.

But North Korea, through its official news agency, said the South had fired first, sending live rounds from a battery on another island onto its side of the maritime border.

“What has been missing in all the analysis is that we’re not listening to what North Korea says,” said Michael Breen, the author of a book about the two Koreas and a biography of Kim Jong-il, the North Korean leader. “Because of the blustering language the North Koreans always use, you tend to dismiss it.

“But if the North was holding live-fire exercises five miles offshore from South Korea, it wouldn’t just be business as usual. These waters, they consider theirs. What’s the point, anyway, of doing these live-fire drills so close to North Korea?”

The South Korean deputy defense minister acknowledged Tuesday night that the South had fired artillery close to North Korea, but he insisted the shots were aimed away from the North. Defense officials also said the North had known about the exercises.

Anxiety in Seoul as Civilian Deaths Are Reported

And the South - Excerpt:

And in Seoul — which lies well within range of North Korean missiles — people seemed caught somewhere between calm and dread, angry over the deaths but perhaps slightly relieved that things had not escalated.

Kwak Kyeh-nyong, a lighting designer, said the situation certainly had him worried on Tuesday night.

“It felt quite serious last night, and I was thinking that if a war started, I would have to go back into military service,” he said, sipping an early-morning espresso to nurse a hangover after a night of prebirthday partying. He turned 27 on Wednesday.

“I did my military service very close to the North Korean border. Every day I went to the DMZ. If a war had started, I would have been dead within five minutes.”

Comment: I'm just thinking ... if the young men of our greatest generation had a dread of dying and concerned about going into military service as they nursed hangovers, I would either be speaking German or Japanese today! Perhaps With the Old Breed should be translated into Korean!

Posted by Jim Peet at 11/24/2010 10:48:00 AM 0 comments

Labels: ,

11.23.2010

North Korea: Decades of Appeasement







1968: The USS Pueblo Incident

1994: U.S. and North Korea Sign Pact to End Nuclear Dispute

2002: NORTH KOREA SAYS IT HAS A PROGRAM ON NUCLEAR ARMS

2010: S. Korean Navy Ship Sinks in Disputed Waters

And we wonder why they continue to provoke us!


Comment: Helpful NYTimes interactive

Posted by Jim Peet at 11/23/2010 09:29:00 PM 1 comments

Labels:

North Korea: Like a bratty little brother!

A Nettlesome Neighbor for China

Excerpt:

North Korea’s unending appetite for confrontation has left many wondering what its bottom line is, none more so than its supposed patron and big brother, China.

Despite its impoverishment and heavy dependence on Chinese aid and support, North Korea seems to take a perverse pleasure in defying every Chinese diplomatic initiative, from efforts to keep the Korean peninsula nuclear free to avoiding violent confrontation.

China’s influence is rising steadily around the world. But the problem of how to manage its Communist neighbor and one-time ally appears to befuddle China’s leaders, who stumble from indulging the North to sending occasional signals of pique, all without making the country adopt a path toward greater openness or stability.

“At the moment China has limited influence,” Cai Jian, a professor of Korean studies at Fudan University, said in a telephone interview. “On one hand it’s unhappy with North Korean actions and its provocative behavior, but on the other hand it still has to support North Korea.”

The support continues because China fears the vacuum created by a sudden collapse there would open the door to rule by South Korea, “and that will put an American military alliance on the doorstep of China.”

Mr. Cai said that during a recent trip to China, the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il was told by the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, that they should communicate better so that China would not be surprised by its behavior.

From the North, a Pattern of Aggression

Excerpt:

While the North has sought to send strong, militaristic messages to the United States and its allies in the past, the new provocations have been more forceful and lethal than in recent decades. Analysts say the government may be trying to ensure that the Kim family dynasty continues for a third generation by winning the loyalty of the powerful military with shows of force.

The escalation may also reflect the increasing insecurity or even desperation of the isolated North, which often has trouble feeding its own population, much less keeping up with the rising technological and military capabilities of the far wealthier South.

“The North reacts with sea clashes whenever it feels slighted or threatened,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. “The North wants to send a message to the South that it will never yield.”

Comment: One of these days, this will boil over and be a war. I'm surprised it hasn't so far. More from the 2nd article on the logic (there must be some logic one would think!) of the North's actions.

Excerpt (I added the numbered list and the bolded headers):

Analysts admit that trying to make sense of these seemingly random and often violent acts is a bit like reading tea leaves. However, they tend to offer three lines of analysis in explaining them.
  1. Get Washington's attention: The first is that the North is raising tensions on the peninsula in order to get Washington’s attention. In particular, North Korea appears keen to hold bilateral talks with the United States, something both the Bush and Obama administrations have been wary of doing. The Bush administration preferred to hold collective discussions with North Korea as part of the so-called six party talks that also involve China, Japan, Russia and South Korea. The Obama administration has not held direct talks with the North.
  2. Stir domestic population by creating a crisis: The recent provocations could be a show aimed at the broader domestic population, to once again rally them behind the government by creating an air of crisis. Some experts have also speculated that the recent acts were ordered by the younger Kim to establish his leadership credentials with the military, arguably the most powerful institution in North Korea.
  3. Bargaining chip: One of the North’s ultimate goals may be ensuring the Kim dynasty’s survival by negotiating with the United States, most likely for a peace treaty to conclude the Korean war, which never formally ended. North Korea could conceivably offer its nuclear program as a bargaining chip in exchange for security guarantees that would include a pledge never to attack the North.

Posted by Jim Peet at 11/23/2010 01:56:00 PM 0 comments

Labels: ,

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)