Understanding "the market": a "cacophony of exogenous events"

How long the stock selling stampede may last

 Excerpt:

On Thursday, Saut blamed a "cacophony of exogenous events" for derailing the traditional year-end rally and leading to the worst start to a new year on Wall Street since 2008.

It all began with "the $1.2 trillion options and futures expiration" on quadruple-witching Friday on Dec. 18, Saut said. "That upset the rhythm of the rally. But we gathered our strength and came back the next week.

And then you've been hit by this potential war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Chinese slowdown, and the 'H-bomb' of North Korea." "The markets look like they're in a free fall right here," he said. "It feels like we're in one of those selling stampedes, and they typically last 17 to 25 sessions. And this would be only session six. I would be more cautious here."

Comments:

• Who could blame the Saudis for having nuke ambitions?! Imagine the Middle - East with Muslims with Nukes!!! 
• On the China slowdown: The market is soft because of fears the Chinese economy has slipped or will slip into recession. My take is that it will! WSJ has more on this here. Image above is capture from this article.
• On DPRK and the H-Bomb: doubt it but  Kim Jong-un is the bad boy brat of the region
• Updated: 3rd photo from this article. See also

Perspective:

More: 

The stock selloff is happening in a parallel universe

Do we all live in China now? Investors could be excused for thinking that, given that arcane indicators such as a Chinese manufacturing index and the value of the Chinese yuan are inducing nauseating drops in the U.S. stock market. And the surprise halt to trading in the latest Chinese session, a mere 30 minutes after markets opened, has thrown U.S. and European markets into a tailspin.

Last we checked, however, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes were composed of U.S. companies that might do some business in China, but still earn the vast majority of their revenue elsewhere. And elsewhere, economic fundamentals are looking way better than the gloomy start to this year’s trading would suggest. The U.S. economy will probably grow around 2.5% this year, which isn’t great, but is a sustainable pace that seems nowhere near overheating. The economy can progress at that measured pace for a long time before the next downturn occurs.

Another perspective chart:

Kim Jong-Un's failed "Spice Girls diplomacy"

Kim Jong-un 'ordered girl group home over Chinese snub'

Excerpt:

A Chinese government official told Yonhap that North Korea initially expected Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, to attend he concert, but was horrified at the offer of only a politburo member. The concert had been billed as a sign of improving relations between the two countires. Beijing decided to downgrade its presence on Thursday, the day that the Moranbong Band arrived in the Chinese capital and the same day that the North Korean leader claimed his scientists had built and deployed a hydrogen bomb

Chinese officials discovered Kim Jong Un worship would be a recurring theme throughout the performance and began making changes that North Korea found unacceptable.

Excerpt:

The abrupt cancellation of Moranbong's weeklong "friendship" tour in Beijing could have been the result of a dispute between Beijing and Pyongyang, but analysts said the outcome is unlikely to affect bilateral relations. South Korea's National Intelligence Service told Joo Ho-young, a ruling party lawmaker and chairman of the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee, the Beijing concert was suddenly canceled on Saturday after Chinese officials discovered Kim Jong Un worship would be a recurring theme in the performance. Officials then decided to limit the spectatorship to low-ranking Chinese officials that incited a backlash from the North Koreans, South Korean news agency Yonhap reported.

South Korea Worries Over Rising Threat From North - Breakdown of inter-Korean talks and cancellation of female pop band’s Beijing shows fuel worries

Excerpt:

The failure of recent inter-Korean talks and sudden cancellation of shows in China by a North Korean band close to dictator Kim Jong Un increase the possibility that Pyongyang will revert to military provocations, officials and experts say. On Saturday, North Korea pulled out of cross-border talks after South Korea said it refused the country’s demand to resume a tourism project that once provided Pyongyang with tens of millions of dollars each year. A few hours earlier, North Korea’s relationship with China appeared to sour when a troupe of female performers flew back to the North Korean capital hours before they were due to appear in the first of a series of shows for Chinese officials in Beijing. In 2012, Mr. Kim formed the all-female Moranbong Band, whose high heels and short skirts contrast sharply with North Korea’s familiar dour militarism. The band’s pop performances, often attended by Mr. Kim, feature western hits such as the theme from “Rocky” and upbeat odes to North Korea’s leadership.

Comment: Kinda "leggy" by North Korean standards! They should be on the Today Show!

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