Reality Bites

Dow Rises to Highest Level Since February

Excerpt:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to its highest level since early February on Monday, lifted by investor optimism about deal activity and trade developments. .... 

“The signal that we can take away from that is that sentiment has not been hit sufficiently by the trade uncertainty that it puts business decisions in question,” said Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

The Dow industrials climbed 89.37 points, or 0.3%, to 25758.69—their highest close since Feb. 1. The S&P 500 added 6.92 points, or 0.2%, to 2857.05, bringing it 0.6% below its January record. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 4.68 points, or less than 0.1%, to 7821.01. The trio of indexes has climbed in three straight sessions.

Stocks tied to commodities and global growth lifted large indexes, with the materials, energy and industrials sectors ranking as the S&P 500’s best performers. Investors are now waiting to see if the S&P 500 can set a new high after the index came within 0.5% of that level earlier this month.

Another epic economic collapse is coming

Excerpt:

This Wednesday, according to the Financial Times' Robin Wigglesworth and Nicole Bullock, "the U.S. stock market will officially have enjoyed its longest-ever bull run" -- one that rises 20 percent from its low, until it drops 20 percent from its peak. And Sept. 15 will be the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Bros., the fourth-largest U.S. investment bank. History's largest bankruptcy filing presaged the October 2008 evaporation of almost $10 trillion in global market capitalization. 

The durable market rise that began March 6, 2009, is as intoxicating as the Lehman anniversary should be sobering: Nothing lasts. Those who see no Lehman-like episode on the horizon did not see the last one.

Economists debate, inconclusively, this question: Do economic expansions die of old age (the current one began in June 2009) or are they slain by big events or bad policies? What is known is that all expansions end. G od, a wit has warned, is going to come down and pull civilization over for speeding. When He, or something, decides that today's expansion, currently in its 111th month (approaching twice the 58-month average length of post-1945 expansions), has gone on long enough, the contraction probably will begin with the annual budget deficit exceeding $1 trillion.

Comment: It's just a matter of time ...

Then (source)

Updated - 8/21

The Longest Bull

Why has this bull market lasted so long? Because it keeps on rotating. @JimCramer breaks it down from the floor of the @NYSE: https://t.co/8tdvoFY905 pic.twitter.com/K6HmvHHyI7

— TheStreet (@TheStreet) August 21, 2018

This year is full of uncertainty and teeming with hazards. Should you protect your assets from a potential collapse? https://t.co/Eta8XiAqiU via @WSJ

— James Peet (@jrpeet) August 22, 2018

The stock market is in the middle of one of the greatest bull markets in history. Many Americans might not have noticed. https://t.co/WStbMavZnW

— NYT Business (@nytimesbusiness) August 22, 2018

Update on 8/22: Bull Market Hits a Milestone: 3,453 Days.

The recent uptick in the U.S. economy is not simply a “sugar high,” write Edward C. Prescott and Lee E. Ohanian https://t.co/nYZqo01uSF via @WSJOpinion

— WSJ Editorial Page (@WSJopinion) August 24, 2018

#SP500 #NASDAQ = All time highs!https://t.co/OV3oQDk1kA pic.twitter.com/OByrqIfZTj

— James Peet (@jrpeet) August 24, 2018