Understanding "the market": a "cacophony of exogenous events"

How long the stock selling stampede may last


On Thursday, Saut blamed a "cacophony of exogenous events" for derailing the traditional year-end rally and leading to the worst start to a new year on Wall Street since 2008.

It all began with "the $1.2 trillion options and futures expiration" on quadruple-witching Friday on Dec. 18, Saut said. "That upset the rhythm of the rally. But we gathered our strength and came back the next week.

And then you've been hit by this potential war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Chinese slowdown, and the 'H-bomb' of North Korea." "The markets look like they're in a free fall right here," he said. "It feels like we're in one of those selling stampedes, and they typically last 17 to 25 sessions. And this would be only session six. I would be more cautious here."

  • Who could blame the Saudis for having nuke ambitions?! Imagine the Middle - East with Muslims with Nukes!!! 
  • On the China slowdown: The market is soft because of fears the Chinese economy has slipped or will slip into recession. My take is that it will! WSJ has more on this here. Image above is capture from this article.
  • On DPRK and the H-Bomb: doubt it but  Kim Jong-un is the bad boy brat of the region
  • Updated: 3rd photo from this article. See also


The stock selloff is happening in a parallel universe
Do we all live in China now? Investors could be excused for thinking that, given that arcane indicators such as a Chinese manufacturing index and the value of the Chinese yuan are inducing nauseating drops in the U.S. stock market. And the surprise halt to trading in the latest Chinese session, a mere 30 minutes after markets opened, has thrown U.S. and European markets into a tailspin.

Last we checked, however, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes were composed of U.S. companies that might do some business in China, but still earn the vast majority of their revenue elsewhere. And elsewhere, economic fundamentals are looking way better than the gloomy start to this year’s trading would suggest. The U.S. economy will probably grow around 2.5% this year, which isn’t great, but is a sustainable pace that seems nowhere near overheating. The economy can progress at that measured pace for a long time before the next downturn occurs.

Another perspective chart:

1 comment:

  1. “I found it very interesting that the opening day of trading in 2016 was the worst since 1932, and as you recall....that year didn’t work out too well. Ironically, despite all the bullish predictions from the Wall Street crowd, things are materially worse today than the lead-up to the Great Depression of the 1930s…" John Embry


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