Showing posts with label 2012 Presidential election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Presidential election. Show all posts
11.07.2012
11.06.2012
10.18.2012
Electoral Map Prediction # 1
Using: www.270towin.com
- Romney wins Ohio, Virginia and Florida (I think he has to win these three to win) AND
- Pennsylvania and Colorado
- Romney = 289 / Obama =249
Miscellaneous
I've been working from home for three weeks. I thought I had a relapse with my Clostridium difficile infection that I had in 2011 (January 2011 until mid August). Something's not right. I went back to the infectious disease specialist at Methodist Hospital and after tests it is NOT Clostridium difficile. So I am sick ... but not really sick. Sick enough to work from home but not that dreaded Clostridium difficile.
I thank the Lord for my manager who is very understanding. Also for VPN and a nice laptop and high speed Internet. Also for a a good cell-phone with a bluetooth head set. Otherwise I would be not working.
The BRAT diet: Stands for Banana, Rice, Applesauce and Toast. All easy to digest. So I had 2 pieces of toast for breakfast. I demanded that Kathee put some butter on them and she did grudgingly. I had rice for lunch. We have a nice rice cooker and while bland it is filling. I also had a banana today and later will have the apple sauce. Hoping that the insides settle down and I am not confined to be close to "the throne"
Thoughts on the Presidential election: (not much of a segue!)
- I thought the 2nd Presidential debate was a waste. These debates are about one-line zingers. There is little substance to them. The VP debate (other than showing that Biden is an idiot) was likewise a waste.
- I am hopeful that Romney will win. I think it is going to come down to Florida, Virginia and Ohio. If Romney doesn't win these states I doubt he will win. He needs these three and more. Real Clear Politics has a good analysis today
- In the back of my mind I have this thought that Obama doesn't want re-election. He likes to golf, he likes Hawaii, he can make a good speech that appeals to a certain audience. I think (whether in 2012 or '16) he will like being former-President Obama.
9.27.2012
9.25.2012
Another reason to vote for Romney
Comment: Spare us! Image is a snip from the Drudge Report
8.29.2012
The 3-2-1 strategy
Excerpt:
According to GOP Chairman Reince Priebus, the party has a 3-2-1 strategy. While holding all the states McCain won, the party must first recapture three red states that Barack Obama carried: Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. Next, Romney must carry the two major battleground states that Obama won last time: Ohio and Florida. Third, add one more state Obama carried in 2008, like Colorado. Then the GOP is home.
Yet with the exception of Indiana, none of those six states seems close to secure. And the GOP must win them all. And now Missouri, after Todd Akin’s “legitimate rape” gaffe, has moved from Republican red into the undecided column.
The good news: With Paul Ryan on the ticket, Wisconsin is in play, and Mitt’s birth state, Michigan, is getting a second look.
Yet consider the uphill struggle the GOP faces in a year when the election should be a cakewalk.
Though he has four straight trillion-dollar deficits and 42 months of 8 percent unemployment to his credit, Obama appears to already have four of the seven mega-states — California, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New York — secure and is more than competitive in Ohio and Florida.
Looking to the future, what is the Republican strategy ever again to win New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois or California, other than due to some national calamity or new depression?Comment: Below is the 2008 Electoral map from http://www.270towin.com/.
8.15.2012
The "CENGAs": "their desire for hope and change has turned to disillusionment and unemployment"
A Romney first: over 40% of youth vote back him
Excerpt:
Zogby has been especially interested in the youth vote this election. In 2008, 66 percent chose Obama over Sen. John McCain,the highest percentage for a Democrat in three decades. But their desire for hope and change has turned to disillusionment and unemployment. Zogby calls them "CENGAs" for "college-educated, not going anywhere." In his latest poll, Obama receives just 49 percent of the youth vote when pitted against Romney, who received 41 percent. In another question, the independent candidacy of Gary Johnson is included, and here Obama wins 50 percent, Romney 38 percent and Johnson 5 percent.Comment: Obama is breaking the bank by pandering to seniors (the Medicare fears) while laying debt on the next generations.
8.09.2012
4.10.2012
It's Romney ... now which gap to close?
Santorum Suspends Presidential Campaign
Obama Leads Romney in Poll That Shows 19-Point Gender Gap
Excerpt:
Obama is boosted by his support among women, a constituency that favors him by 19 percentage points over RomneyComment: The Republicans have two traditional gaps ... blacks (which will vote overwhelmingly for Obama) and Hispanics. The third gap is women. The third gap may have been why McCain chose Palin. That was exciting for about a day. Shortly thereafter the enthusiasm waned when Republicans (at least the ones I know) questioned whether she was qualified to step into the highest office. I suspect that the gender gap will promote a female governor to the head of the VP list.
9.06.2011
The 2012 Election Will Come Down to Seven States
The 2012 Election Will Come Down to Seven States
Excerpts:
President Obama is assured of 175 electoral votes from 12 deep-blue states and the District of Columbia: California (55 electoral votes), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington state (12) and Washington, D.C. (3).
Three more states are not quite as certain, but still likely Democratic: Maine (4), Minnesota (10) and Oregon (7). Even though Minnesota is competitive enough to vote Republican under the right set of conditions, it is the state with the longest Democratic presidential streak, dating to 1976
Four other states usually vote Democratic for president, but they're hardly a sure thing: Michigan (16), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10). A low Hispanic vote in 2012 could flip New Mexico, as Al Gore carried it by only 366 votes in 2000 and a dedicated effort by George W. Bush flipped it in 2004. In Michigan, economic problems might cause voters to cool on Democrats. Wisconsin, narrowly Democratic in 2000 and 2004, is a cauldron of unpredictable countertrends. And although Pennsylvania has frustrated all GOP attempts to win it over since 1988, recent polls have shown weakness for Mr. Obama there. These 51 electoral votes will be GOP targets if conditions in the fall of 2012 approximate today's.
Meanwhile, the Republicans have their own firewall. Almost any sentient GOP nominee will carry Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3). These 18 states have 105 electoral votes.
The Obama forces have bravely boasted that they can turn Arizona (11), Georgia (16) and Texas (38), mainly because of growing Latino voting power. But with the economy in the tank, electoral claims on these big three will likely go the way of John McCain's early declaration in '08 that California was within his grasp. Count another 65 red votes here.
Four years ago, even optimistic Democrats didn't think they would pick up Indiana (11), North Carolina (15), or an electoral vote in Nebraska (which like Maine awards one vote per congressional district), yet all three went for Mr. Obama by small margins. In 2012, Indiana is likely to desert him, as is the one Cornhusker district. To keep North Carolina, the Democrats chose Charlotte for their national convention and will make a big play statewide. As of now, it looks tough for them. Thus Republicans are in the lead to win 26 more electors. Missouri was the sole squeaker that went for McCain; few believe it will be tight next year, so the GOP will likely have those 10 votes, too.
Republicans therefore are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. That's why seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).
Comment: Consider earlier post: 2012 Electoral Math. Check out http://www.270towin.com/ and play different scenarios
8.10.2011
Gone: "That old black magic"
Democrats doubt Barack Obama's reelection chances
Excerpt:
Gary Pearce, a Democratic strategist in North Carolina, a swing state Mr Obama is likely to struggle to retain in 2012, said: "Democrats are worried. He looks weak, he doesn't say anything that grabs you, and people are looking for some kind of magic."
Comment: Black Magic lyrics (Frank Sinatra).
But he has morphed into a Jimmy:
"The notion everyone is talking about is 'is he Jimmy Carter or will he be a one-term president'
8.07.2011
2012 Electoral Math
Obama Likely Will Lose in 2012
Excerpt:
We'll begin with the 2008 results adjusted for the post-Census reapportionment. I think we can all agree that this is a baseline -- the chances that Obama will win more electoral votes than he did three years ago is zero. Then we'll begin with what I think are fairly obvious adjustments -- we'll give the Republicans back the electoral vote they lost in Nebraska along with Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia -- traditionally Republican states that he carried last time through a special magic the like of which we are not likely to see again.
Let's work from this base of 219 electoral votes and assume that the following states are potential battlegrounds in 2012: Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida. We'll throw in Maine and New Jersey as stretch states as well. This gives the Republican nominee an almost absurd number of paths to the White House:
Perhaps the most obvious one, in that it resembles the 2000 and 2004 battlefields most heavily, is that a Republican could win by taking just Florida, Ohio, and Nevada from that list of states.
Or, even, they could tie it -- and win in a Republican-controlled House -- by taking Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin from the rust belt and Nevada in the West.
Alternatively, they could win without taking a single rust-belt state by winning in Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, and New Hampshire.
Another odd-looking way of doing it would be to take Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, and Oregon.
More simply, working from this base, Obama has to take 2/3 of the electoral votes in battleground states -- a tall order even for ordinary times.
Comment: Cool interactive electoral map (screen shot above): 270towin.com
8.03.2011
George Will: On 2012, The Tea Party, Obama's "apostasy"
The debt deal and Obama's 2012 problem
Excerpts:
By affirming liberalism’s lodestar — the principle that government’s grasp on national resources must constantly increase — Obama made himself a spectator in a Washington more conservative than it was during the Reagan presidency. By accepting, as he had no choice but to do, Congress’s resolution of the crisis, Obama annoyed liberals. They indict him for apostasy from their one-word catechism, “More!” But egged on by them, he talked himself into a corner. Having said that failure to raise the ceiling would mean apocalypse, he could hardly say failure to raise revenue would be worse.
...
Regarding the political process: There are limits to what can be accomplished by those controlling only half of Congress, but the Tea Party has demonstrated that the limits are elastic under the pressure of disciplined and durable passion. As Tom Brokaw said in Washington on “Meet the Press” last Sunday, the debt-ceiling drama ended as it did because the Tea Party got angry, got organized and got here.
...
Obama’s presidency may last 17 or 65 more months, but it has been irreversibly neutered by two historic blunders made at its outset. It defined itself by health-care reform most Americans did not desire, rather than by economic recovery. And it allowed, even encouraged, self-indulgent liberal majorities in Congress to create a stimulus that confirmed conservatism’s portrayal of liberalism as an undisciplined agglomeration of parochial appetites. This sterile stimulus discredited stimulus as a policy.
...
America may be one-third of the way through a lost decade — or worse, toward a lost national identity. So, Republicans have their 2012 theme: “Is this the best we can do?”
Comment: Interesting read. Obama is looking weak right now but I think he will be a formidable candidate. Clinton looked beatable in '94
6.13.2011
Kicking the Debt Can: "Everybody's kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt"
Roubini Says “Perfect Storm” May Clobber Global Economy
Excerpt:
Roubini's perfect storm consists of four factors:
Roubini says there's a one-in-three chance that these factors will clobber growth in 2013. Now, that sounds terrifying, but it all means there's a two-in-three chance that everything will be okay. (Roubini's other two possible scenarios are "anemic growth" and "accelerating growth.") One problem that seems undeniable is the European debt crisis, which has defied all attempts to paper it over and kick the can down the road. Greece is broke, and no serious analyst that I know of thinks it will ever be able to pay back its debts. The logic underlying the endless bailouts and aid-packages, therefore, is to deal with the problem later and/or hope that it somehow resolves itself. In an FT editorial today Professor Roubini said that this hope was a hallucination and that the Euro-zone needs to break apart. "There are already elements of fragility," Bloomberg quotes Roubini as saying. "Everybody's kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest." ..
- The U.S.'s basket-case of an economy and budget deficit,
- A potential slowdown in China,
- European debt restructuring and
- Stagnation in Japan.
Comment: Any candidate for POTUS who does not speak to this problem is not a viable candidate.
4.04.2011
“Change” versus “More of the Same”
Excerpt:
President Barack Obama launched his 2012 reelection campaign on Monday morning with a video testimonial from voters posted on his website and an email to supporters, echoing his innovative and oft-copied 2008 kickoff.
Comment: Because he couldn't completely bankrupt the country with one term. See Campaign Slogans of Barack Obama
12.10.2010
Peggy Noonan: a primary challenger to Obama in 2012?
From Audacity to Animosity - No president has alienated his base the way Obama has.
Excerpts:
Mr. Obama said, essentially, that he hates the deal he just agreed to, hates the people he made the deal with, and hates even more the people who'll criticize it. His statement was startling in the breadth of its animosity. Republicans are "hostage takers" who worship a "holy grail" of "tax cuts for the wealthy." "That seems to be their central economic doctrine."
As for the left, they ignore his accomplishments and are always looking for "weakness and compromise." They are "sanctimonious," "purist," and just want to "feel good about" themselves. In a difficult world, they cling to their "ideal positions" and constant charges of "betrayals."
...
Mr. Obama's problem is not only with the left of his party. Democratic professionals, people who do the work of politics day by day, don't see him as a bad man or a sellout, but they scratch their heads over him and privately grouse. They don't understand a Democratic president who, in the midst of a great recession, in our modern welfare state, doesn't know how to win support!
...
The Democratic Party is stuck. Their problem is not, as some have said, that they don't have anyone of sufficient stature to challenge the president. Russ Feingold and Howard Dean have said they aren't interested, but a challenger can always be found, or can emerge. If anything marks this political age, it's that anyone can emerge.
The Democrats' problem is that most of them know that the person who would emerge, who would challenge Mr. Obama from the left, would never, could never, win the 2012 general election. He'd lose badly and take the party with him. Democratic professionals know the mood of the country. Challenging Mr. Obama from the left would mean definitely losing the presidency, as opposed to probably losing the presidency.
There is only one Democrat who could possibly challenge Mr. Obama for the nomination successfully and win the general election, and that is Hillary Clinton. Who insists she doesn't want to.
What are the Democrats to do? If you are stuck with a president, you try to survive either with him or, individually, in spite of him. Some Democrats will try to bring him back. How? Who knows. But that will be a great Democratic drama of 2011: Saving Obama.
Comment: Alienating friends and foes alike!
7.21.2010
Change I can believe in!
A year after President Barack Obama's political honeymoon ended, his job approval rating has dropped to a negative 44 - 48 percent, his worst net score ever, and American voters say by a narrow 39 - 36 percent margin that they would vote for an unnamed Republican rather than President Obama in 2012, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Comment: I like Romney!
6.24.2009
Strike Sanford from the list (of potential GOP candidates)
Sanford admits affair, apologizes to family
Excerpt:
Gov. Mark Sanford admitted today that his secret trip to Argentina over Father's Day weekend was to visit a woman he is having an affair with.
Comment: Adultery is always nasty! When your friends say this - "Lies. Lies. Lies. That's all we get from his staff. That's all we get from his people. That's all we get from him," said state Sen. Jake Knotts, R-West Columbia. - you know you are in trouble (politically)!
6.04.2009
Potential GOP Presidential candidates?
Prominent Republicans' Moves Scrutinized for Clues to 2012 Bids
Excerpt:
Little more than four months into President Obama's first term, potential Republican rivals have begun to stir, taking preliminary steps toward 2012 presidential campaigns aimed at rejuvenating a party that has found itself at its lowest point in a generation.
Twice this week, the political community has seized on signs of activity among prospective GOP presidential candidates. On Monday, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney delivered a speech at the Heritage Foundation, where he slammed Obama for having taken what he called a foreign "tour of apology" this year. Romney ran unsuccessfully for his party's nomination in 2008, and his speech was seen as a forceful expression of interest in another bid.
The next day, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty announced that he will not seek reelection next year, voluntarily leaving after his second term. Pawlenty was runner-up to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in Sen. John McCain's 2008 vice presidential sweepstakes, and his move was interpreted as a step toward a possible 2012 presidential run, freed from the responsibilities of managing a state while campaigning full time for more than two years.
A third Republican governor, Mississippi's Haley Barbour, has scheduled appearances in New Hampshire and Iowa for later this month. Barbour, a former party chairman, will help raise money for Republicans on his forays to the two states at the front of the presidential nomination calendar. But as one of the canniest politicians in the Republican Party, Barbour knows that landing in either of those states, let alone both, will stoke speculation about his interest in 2012 as well.
Comment: Way to early but interesting
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