How long will the recession last? My view

  1. As long as there is unidentified "toxic debt" we won't reach the bottom
  2. As long there are pending ARM resets (and they go out more than a year) we won't reach the bottom
  3. The "stimulus" package is like throwing wet green wood on a dwindling fire. Tax cuts would have better a better (faster) stimulus.
  4. If we are faced with a terrorist act on the scale of 911, it would be a serious test of a very weak economy (aside from the horrendous human toll). We need to pray that President Obama has wisdom to protect our homeland.
  5. The expected unemployment rate was 7.9% and it was 8.1% (Friday's announcement). Unemployment is likely to increase and probably will exceed 10%.
  6. This is more serious than the 1982 recession. I doubt it gets as bad as "the Depression" but it will get worse
  7. People financially stressed with debt will face greater hardship
  8. The amount of "wealth" lost in the stock market will probably not recover in less than 5 years. Probably more than 10.
  9. People will end up deferring retirement
  10. Housing is very affordable and may get more so. But don't buy a house unless you intend to stay in it for at least 7 years.
  11. There will be migration of people from unemployment "hot spots" to areas that are hiring. Bad for Michigan!
  12. GM will file for bankruptcy. Fed $$ to GM a waste of time. Chrysler is not likely to survive.
  13. The stock market is near bottom and probably a good time to start investing in conservative stocks. Don't look for short term gains.
  14. This would be a terrible time for non-profits to borrow - even if they could
  15. Larger non-profits (churches included) will need to restrict hiring / probably have layoffs.
  16. The Pillsbury closure is a harbinger of the destiny of other schools with low enrollment / and debt. Stronger schools (BJU) will survive largely unscathed. Smaller seminaries and schools should preemptively look for merger opportunities for the good of their faculty and students.
  17. If your car is a clunker and you can afford it, a great time to buy a new one.
  18. A good time to avoid school loans. Parents may make more conservative financial decisions pertaining to schools and this could impact enrollment at private schools (see In a Shifting Era of Admissions, Colleges Are Sweating - "it’s like the dot-com bubble burst for higher ed")

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